Trump and Merkel: History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes
At the height of the Euro crisis, I helped organize many high-level meetings between German government officials and international investors. Behind closed doors many of those investors accused Germany of everything from “willingly breaking up the Euro,” to “destroying the world… again”.
Why? Because Chancellor Merkel and her team didn’t want to give in to the blunt and unrealistic demands of simply printing (more) money and Germany (partially) taking over the debt of the peripheral countries like Greece and Portugal. Germany underwriting the Eurozone would’ve been a short-term fix to calm markets - and a long term disaster. It would have created a dangerous moral hazard, encouraged fiscal irresponsibility, and ultimately undermined the Euro Project by eroding trust and discipline between member states.
Instead, Merkel insisted that a hard pill would need to be swallowed: Peripheral countries would need to commit to and execute reforms and only then, under those conditions, would Germany be willing to help.
“Tough Love,” she called it.
For me, the current situation in the US reminds me of the choices Germany faced during the Euro Crisis - hard decisions, unpopular measures, and the long view over the quick fix.
The Trump government realized it needed to change global trade imbalances, something which would be blatantly painful to do, but would be better for the US AND the entire world long term. Without these reforms, IMO, there is the very real risk that at some point in the future the US could slide into a massive (financial) crisis of confidence.
And one must give President Trump credit, he is actually much more forward-looking and proactive than European leaders had been. Europe needed a full-blown, almost existential crisis to recognize how unsustainable it had become - and was then forced to take the medicine. Like with many afflictions, like cancer, the later the cure is applied, the harsher the side effects. Trump acting proactively might have saved us from an even bigger pain in the future.
Interestingly, some people in the current administration were on the other side during the Euro crisis. I wish them the same strength, persistence, and calmness Merkel had.
Do I know if this open-heart surgery will work? No - but I am optimistic in this government, which has assembled a group of amazingly talented people. Maybe the most qualified US government in modern history. Is the execution flawless? It never is. Problems of this magnitude are messy and painful by nature. But real leaders take on the issues nobody else does. This is how they change the flow of time. Hopefully for the better.
“Take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly, and try another. But by all means, try something.”
– Franklin D. Roosevelt
Reorganizing global trade is not even a new demand. Several Presidents before Trump have talked about trade imbalances, and a few have quietly pushed their allies for more balanced deals. The sad part: Even allies don’t act unless there is serious pressure. I know first-hand that Europe has known since a long time that current trade deals with the US are unfair and to the disadvantage of the US. But as long as the US allowed this to happen, why would they change anything? And Europe “outsmarted” several previous Presidents by just hiding their head in the sand and kicking the can down the road.
No US President had the guts or desire to be the bad cop and really take on the problem, head-on. Until Trump.
However, Merkel’s winning formula had two words: “tough love.” She insisted on change, but also knew she needed partners and allies not just within Europe but with the rest of the world. Achieving her goal of reforms in the peripheral countries would have been a pyrrhic victory if she had destroyed the cohesion within and spirit of Europe in the process.
So far, President Trump has proven to be tough. But there will be moments his allies need some love as well.